Covid-19 Live Updates: Cases in Florida Are Rising, Especially Among the Young

Variants and eased restrictions are pushing cases up around the United States. College commencements are largely on hold again, with a few universities proceeding without guests. Six states will open vaccines to all adults on Monday.
Here’s what you need to know:

Cases in Florida, a national Covid bellwether, are rising — especially among younger people.

In the U.S., cases tick upward again as variants spread and states lift restrictions.

Six states are opening vaccination to all adults on Monday, with many residents eager for shots.

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Many U.S. graduations are curtailed again, but some commencements will go on without guests.

At least 36 states give clergy vaccine priority, for the risks they face and the example they set.

A volunteer army aims to vaccinate Black people in the rural South.

Cases in Florida, a national Covid bellwether, are rising — especially among younger people.
A scene from the resort island of South Beach last week.
A scene from the resort island of South Beach last week. Credit…Calla Kessler for The New York Times

Scientists view Florida — the state furthest along in lifting restrictions, reopening society and welcoming tourists — as a bellwether for the nation.

If recent trends there are any indication, the rest of the country may be in trouble.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Florida has been steadily rising, though hospitalizations and deaths are still down. Over the past week, the state has averaged nearly 5,000 cases per day, an increase of 8 percent from its average two weeks earlier.

B.1.1.7, the more contagious variant first identified in Britain, is also rising exponentially in Florida, where it accounts for a greater proportion of total cases than in any other state, according to numbers collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“Wherever we have exponential growth, we have the expectation of a surge in cases, and a surge in cases will lead to hospitalizations and deaths,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Florida has had one of the country’s most confusing and inefficient vaccination campaigns, and has fully vaccinated about 15 percent of its population — well below what top states, like New Mexico and South Dakota, have managed. Still, immunization of older people and other high-risk individuals may blunt the number of Florida’s deaths somewhat. The state has announced it will start offering the vaccine to anyone over age 18 on April 5.

At least some of the cases in Florida are the result of the state’s open invitation to tourists. Hordes of students on spring break have descended on the state since mid-February. Rowdy crowds on Miami Beach this month forced officials to impose an 8 p.m. curfew, although many people still flouted the rules.

Miami-Dade County, which includes Miami Beach, has experienced one of the nation’s worst outbreaks, and continues to record high numbers. The county averaged more than 1,100 cases per day over the past week.

In Orange County, cases are on the rise among young people. People 45 and younger account for one in three hospitalizations for Covid, and the average age for new infections has dropped to 30.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has rejected stringent restrictions from the very start of the pandemic. Florida has never had a mask mandate, and in September Mr. DeSantis banned local governments from enforcing mandates of their own. Among his scientific advisers now are architects of the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for political leaders to allow the coronavirus to spread naturally among young people, while the elderly and those with underlying conditions sheltered in place.
Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.

— Apoorva Mandavilli
Tracking the Coronavirus ›

United States
On March 27 14-day change
New cases 60,302 +12%
New deaths 780 –31%
World
On March 27 14-day change
608,627 +26%
9,861 +11%
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U.S. vaccinations ›
Where states are reporting vaccines given
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At least one dose28%
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In the U.S., cases tick upward again as variants spread and states lift restrictions.
People waiting for coronavirus tests in Corona, Queens, N.Y., last week. The state’s seven-day average of new infections has shot up by more than 3,000 since last Tuesday.
People waiting for coronavirus tests in Corona, Queens, N.Y., last week. The state’s seven-day average of new infections has shot up by more than 3,000 since last Tuesday.Credit…James Estrin/The New York Times

After weeks of decline followed by a steady plateau, coronavirus cases are rising again in the United States. Deaths are still decreasing, but the country averaged 61,545 cases last week, 11 percent more than the average two weeks earlier.

Scientists predicted weeks ago that the number of infections would curve upward again in late March, at least in part because of the rise of variants of the coronavirus across the country. The variant that walloped Britain, called B.1.1.7, has led to a new wave of cases across most of Europe. Some scientists warned that it may lead to a new wave in the United States.

The rise in infections is also a result of state leaders pulling back on mitigation measures, and large social interactions, like spring break gatherings in Florida, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s chief science adviser, said on the CBS program “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

“The variants are playing a part, but it’s not completely the variants,” Dr. Fauci said. Most states have lifted restrictions, including on indoor dining, in response to the drop in numbers, actions that Dr. Fauci called “premature.”
Coronavirus Restrictions by State

See more detail on restrictions in your state as of March 26 »
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As of Thursday, there were 8,337 known cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in the country, but the actual number is probably much higher because labs in the country analyze only a very small proportion of the diagnosed cases. Still, the trend is clear: The variant — which is more transmissible and possibly more lethal — has been rising exponentially in the United States, its growth masked by the overall drop in infections.

“It is remarkable how much this recalls the situation last year where we had introductions of virus to different places that scientists warned would be a problem,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. School of Public Health, said in an interview on Sunday. “People waited for them to be a problem before they took action — and then too late, they took action.”

Dr. Hanage said he was particularly worried about B.1.1.7 because it is at least 50 percent more transmissible than the original virus. The brisk pace of vaccinations will stem the tide somewhat, but the rising immunity in the population may be more than offset by the variant’s contagiousness, he added. “B.1.1.7 is really scary,” he said.

The vaccines in use in the United States — made by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson — are expected to prevent severe disease and death from any of the variants, although they are slightly less effective against a variant that was identified in South Africa. That variant, known as B.1.351, has not yet spread widely in the United States.

Because many of the highest risk people have been inoculated, hospitalizations and deaths may not show a steep rise along with infections. But a surge in cases will still lead to some severe cases and deaths, Dr. Hanage said.

“How large it will be we’ll need to wait and see,” he said. “But ideally we would not be waiting to see, ideally we’d be taking action.”

— Apoorva Mandavilli The New York Times