Federal health officials on Tuesday provided the most detailed projections to date about when a wider swath of Americans may be able to begin to receive Covid-19 vaccines, once any is authorized, and treatments outside of an experimental setting, and about what that could look like.
People deemed highest priority — perhaps health care workers or nursing home residents — could be vaccinated in December, with more widespread vaccination to come in the first months of next year, the officials said, laying out an ambitious timeline that could well be thwarted by delays.
The forecasting follows two encouraging developments on Monday: positive clinical-trial results from a vaccine front-runner and an emergency authorization for a Covid-19 treatment. The vaccine candidate, made by Pfizer and BioNTech, was found in an early analysis to be more than 90 percent effective in preventing Covid-19, and Pfizer is expected to submit its data for review by the Food and Drug Administration once it has the necessary safety data next week. No coronavirus vaccine has yet been authorized by the U.S. federal government. The treatment, a monoclonal antibody developed by the drug maker Eli Lilly similar to the one President Trump had taken, is beginning to be shipped out to states this week.
In a series of media appearances on Tuesday, Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services, mapped out a potential timeline for distributing Pfizer’s vaccine, if it receives authorization as is widely hoped. In December, the focus would be on vaccinating the most vulnerable groups. Those groups have not yet been determined, but recommendations from experts have zeroed in on health care workers, first responders and older Americans in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities.
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, echoed that projection in another appearance on MSNBC on Tuesday, saying that by December, doses would be available “for people who are judged to be at the highest priority.” That’s consistent with remarks Dr. Fauci and other officials have made in recent weeks.
By the end of January, Mr. Azar said he expected to have enough vaccine for all health care workers and first responders. (He also added senior citizens to that list in one appearance.) And by the end of March or early April, he expected to have enough of not just Pfizer’s vaccine, but also other vaccines in development, for all Americans, he said. Interim findings are also expected this month from another front-runner in the vaccine race, Moderna Therapeutics.
“The particulars are going to depend on seeing that data, and just seeing: Where does it look most effective — which population is it most effective and safe in?” Mr. Azar said on CNBC.
The hopeful projections from health officials take for granted that there will be no major delays, which is far from guaranteed. Pfizer’s vaccine results must still be evaluated for safety over a longer time period, data which aren’t expected to be available until next week. The F.D.A. could take longer than expected to evaluate Pfizer’s results. Complications could arise in what is a complex manufacturing and distribution effort. And supply could be further constrained if other experimental vaccines don’t work as hoped.
Federal health officials have vowed that Americans will be able to receive Covid-19 vaccines and treatments free of charge. But some seniors will have to pay about $60 to get Eli Lilly’s coronavirus drug, which must be administered via an infusion, federal officials indicated in a phone briefing with reporters on Tuesday.
The seniors affected are those on Medicare who don’t have supplemental coverage, and at least for now, they’ll be required to pay a 20 percent coinsurance fee for the administration of the drug, Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department Health and Human Services, told reporters. The drug itself will come at no cost.
That same situation will not apply when vaccines become available. “No one will have to pay any out-of-pocket expenses for vaccine administration,” Mr. Mango said.
VACCINE ALLOCATION
Citing principles of equity and justice, experts are urging that people living in communities hardest-hit by the pandemic, which are often made up of Black and Hispanic populations, get a portion of the first, limited supply of coronavirus vaccines set aside just for them.
The New York Times