It is the belief of Mr. Biden’s campaign that what voters find distasteful about the president and his administration can all be wrapped up their handling of the coronavirus. In the final stretch, as Mr. Biden has increased his travel schedule to states like Iowa, Georgia, and Michigan, the message from Democrats has been united — all coronavirus, all the time.
Under the hood, the Biden campaign has several factors it’s looking at on Election Day, to judge whether the message has resonated or the campaign is in for a longer night.
Constituencies to watch: The first sign of Mrs. Clinton’s eventual defeat in 2016 was a Democratic electorate that was not engaged. For Mr. Biden, that is the first thing the campaign is seeking to reverse — and the one that’s most in their control. Battleground states like North Carolina and Florida will be the first big tests on Nov. 3, since they are expected to count ballots relatively fast. In those states, look for turnout among Black voters to be an initial measure of core Democratic turnout on Election Day.
Win early in these four states: Mr. Biden has multiple paths to victory, and both campaigns know it. While the dream scenario includes early wins in Florida and North Carolina, shutting off Mr. Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes early in the evening, he also has some secondary options. Georgia and Arizona are other battleground states that should be known on election night, and where Mr. Biden can make up electoral votes that went to Mr. Trump in 2016. And if all else fails, there’s the Midwest, which functions as Mr. Biden’s worst-case scenario. Michigan and Pennsylvania have said it will take several days to finish the count.
Party building: Tuesday is not only Mr. Biden’s day to be elected president, but it could usher in a wave of Democrats in power nationwide. In the last week, Mr. Biden has leaned into states like Iowa and Georgia, which are critical for Democrats seeking to gain control of the Senate. If Mr. Biden is elected with congressional majorities, it sets up a Democratic Party firmly within his grasp, even as it wrestles with strong ideological divides. It also gives them a chance to reverse years long deficits in state legislatures across the country in a critical redistricting year. It is all on the table for Democrats, and Mr. Biden. It will soon become clear if they seized the opportunity.
The New York Times