Good morning. Virus cases are falling more sharply in the U.S. than at any previous point.
A mass vaccination drive at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.Ryan Young for The New York Times
A 35 percent decline

The United States has never experienced a sharp and sustained decline in new coronavirus cases — until, perhaps, now.

Last year, new cases in the U.S. went through cycles of rising rapidly and then leveling off or falling only modestly. That was different from the situation in many other countries, where sharp drops sometimes occurred. Look at how much bigger the declines were in Western Europe last spring and last fall than in the U.S.:
By The New York Times | Sources: Governments and health agencies

But now the situation may be changing.

New cases in the U.S. have fallen 35 percent over the past three weeks. Hospitalizations have dropped, as well. Deaths have not, but they have stabilized — and the death trend typically lags the cases trend by a few weeks.

“I like the trends we are seeing, and I am personally hopeful that things are going to get better,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “But there are a number of things that could also wrong.”
The good news

Let’s start with two possible explanations for the recent improvement:

1. We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.

Put those two groups together, and you realize that about one-third of all Americans have at least some degree of immunity from the virus. That may be enough to begin — begin — slowing the spread, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. explained on “The Daily.”

2. More Americans may be wearing masks and staying socially distant. Many still are not, as I saw on my recent 1,600-mile road trip. But any increase in safe behavior matters.

And there are signs of change. Multiple states tightened restrictions late last year. The country just elected a president who echoes scientific advice rather than flouting it. Some Americans may also be inspired by light at the end of the tunnel.

“I’m hearing from a lot of people that one of the reasons why they’re really hunkering down now is that it would be a shame to get a severe Covid case while waiting to get the vaccine,” Dr. Lee Harrison, the chairman of a local health board, told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this week.

Dr. Mark Escott, who runs the a local health agency around Austin, Texas, told the CBS affiliate there: “Folks are changing behavior. Folks are wearing masks, folks are staying home, and that is resulting in these decreasing cases.”

Dr. Alex Garza, a member of a pandemic task force in St. Louis, told The Associated Press: “The fact that this is happening in the winter when respiratory viruses typically spread the most shows us just how effective all the preventative measures actually are when we use them.”
It could get worse again

I want to emphasize that the pandemic has not entered an inexorable decline.

The biggest reason for concern is the newly infectious variants that could cause case numbers to surge again, especially if people become blasé about masks and distancing — or the Biden administration fails to accelerate vaccinations. And the current rate of death from Covid-19 remains horrific.

But the U.S. has it within its power to make this month a true turning point.

Related: We asked readers of The Morning to tell us their questions about the vaccines — and Times reporters have answered them, covering the sign-up process, side effects and more.
The New York Times
Me: Just because virus related illness has dropped does not mean anything, it is too early to predict what the future holds, for example Covid-19 cases might have dropped, but they could be superseded by a much more virulent Covid strain which is taking over and that has not got to full strength yet.
Wait until viruses continue to drop over a month, or several months, before suggesting a change is happening and note, deaths remain high and have not dropped and surely the dying rate is more important than the potential virus infection.