The variant, which came to the attention of British researchers earlier this month, has been rapidly spreading in London and eastern England. It carries a set of 23 mutations, some of which may make it more contagious.

Dr. Davies and his colleagues found more evidence that the variant does indeed spread more rapidly than others. For example, they ruled out the possibility that it was becoming more common in some regions of the U.K. because people in those places move around more and are more likely to come into contact with each other. Data recorded by Google, indicating the movements of individual cellphone users over time, showed no such difference.
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The researchers built different mathematical models and tested each one as an explanation for the variant’s spread. They analyzed which model of the spread best predicted the number of new cases that actually were confirmed, as well as hospitalization and deaths.

The researchers concluded that the variant is able to spread to more people on average than other variants are. Dr. Davies cautioned that their estimate of 56 percent more contagious was still rough, because they are still gathering data about the variant’s most recent spread. “I think when we get more of that curve, we’ll be more certain,” he said.

Still, he said, even with the data he and his colleagues have so far, he felt confident that the new variant must be taken very seriously. “I do feel that with the totality of the evidence, it’s a strong case,” he said.
The New York Times